Plavno
Cases
FMCG Demand Forecasting Case Study

AI-Powered Demand Forecasting for FMCG — Case Study (2025)

Need

Improve forecast accuracy with AI and significantly reduce analytical workload through automation

Solution

AI-powered demand forecasting solution with the custom analytical reports module

Technologies

Big Data

Artificial Intelligence

Cloud

Machine Learning

Result

Partnering with Plavno, Pura Esencia received an AI-powered Demand Forecasting solution that increased first-week data forecasting accuracy by 25%, increased first-month data forecasting accuracy by 20%, reduced deviation from stable benchmarks to 1%, and reduced the time demand forecasters spend on generating analytics by 40%

25%

improvement in short-term forecasting accuracy

deviation to stable target values

40%

reduction in time analysts spend on generating forecasts and reports

Customer

Pura Esencia is a cosmetics and personal care brand from Spain. Pura Esencia's products are based on original, innovative solutions. The company employs 35,000 people. Pura Esencia has its own network of cosmetic boutiques with 92 stores in Spain and France. The company sells 400,000 products monthly. The demand forecasting department consists of 10 people

Demand Forecasting

Challenges & solutions

Accurate Forecast Data

Problem

Pura Esencia analysts used standard forecasting methods. They spent 60-70% of their working time only on calculating and making adjustments to the base forecast using standard methods, without taking into account new data. Manual forecasting has two shortcomings - forecasting is time-consuming and the accuracy of the data is low. The final results deviated from the estimated values by more than 30%

Solution

We started with conducting an exploratory data analysis (EDA). We identify deviations from the median values of past sales and data outliers. Exploratory data analysis was necessary to ensure that our model did not adjust for random, unpredictable occurrences that do not reflect real trends in demand forecasting. We developed a custom splitter to valid splitting the data for further AI model training and testing. Also we created a variety of statistical, weather, and calendar attributes to identify how demand might behave in different conditions

Cost Optimization

Problem

Demand for FMCG products is variable and depends on several factors: seasonality, promotions, macro environment, weather, competitors' activity and regional specifics. These factors are the basis for frequent mismatches in demand forecasts for Pura Esencia products. Incorrect demand forecasts led to overstocking or understocking of warehouses and higher storage and transportation costs

Solution

Plavno developed demand forecasting tool that can perform calculations in a reliable and automatic manner. Our solution has proven to be effective in automating the demand forecasting process and generate two types of demand forecasting: operational (short-term for 82 weeks) and strategic (for 5 years). These forecasts will enable to offer the optimal assortment of goods, control deliveries, use additional resources if necessary, and do other operations based on the obtained expert report

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process

Crystal clear process

Agile methodology forms the cornerstone of our work philosophy. Through a seamless blend of innovative practices, including regular demos, comprehensive progress tracking, and a unique pay structure based on hours invested, we've constructed a workflow that ensures optimal outcomes and client satisfaction.

discovery

design

development

Testing

Launch

Maintenance

Conduct market research

UX Research

Components

Perform integration testing

Address issues in staging environment

Audience analysis

Moodboards

Develop UI components

Test personalized algorithms

Monitor customer satisfaction

Identify key features

Prototyping

API integrations

Deploy to production

Gather user feedback

Define project scope

UI Design

Implement custom features

Address and fix bugs

Updates and improvements

project team

Launch, accelerate and support your business with our teams

Alexander

Backend

Expertise

Senior Backend Developer with an experience in Drupal and Shopify. Successfully delivered 10+ projects.

PHP

Drupal

Laravel

Express

Docker

Shopify

Michael

Mobile

Expertise

Mobile Developer with 4+ years of experience in React Native and Flutter apps development.

TypeScript

GraphQL

Node.js

Docker

Anastasia

UX/UI Designer

Expertise

UX/UI designer leveraging 6 years of expertise to bridge the gap between user needs and satisfy customers.

Web/Mobile

UX Audit

Prototyping

Graphic

Testimonials

“They really understand what we need. They’re very professional.”

The 3D configurator has received positive feedback from customers. Moreover, it has generated 30% more business and increased leads significantly, giving the client confidence for the future. Overall, Plavno has led the project seamlessly. Customers can expect a responsible, well-organized partner.

Sergio Artimenia
Commercial Director, RNDpoint

FinTech

Project description

Plavno has developed a web application for a product development company. They’ve built a 3D configurator that allows clients to design a unique final product by choosing colors, materials, and other options.

“Plavno is full of professional developers to handle any task.”

The entire process was finished ahead of schedule, thanks to Plavno's resources. The client also increased their conversion rate by 30%. The team was highly efficient, prompt, and receptive to comments and feedback. They delivered high-quality work and exceeded all of the client's expectations.

E-commerce

Project description

A software development firm hired Plavno to provide them with React.js and PHP developers and help them develop a progressive web app. The team was involved in front- and backend development and testing phases.

“Their technical expertise is really impressive.”

Plavno developed a platform that exceeded our needs within the agreed-upon time frame. Their development efforts were great. The knowledgeable team communicated clearly and provided regular progress updates.

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Project description

Plavno developed a digital university admissions platform for a web development company. They designed the UX/UI for three user groups, and built the platform using React.js, Python, C# and other tool.

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